Scrabble Adventures

Here are some statistics from the book Word Freak when someone analyzed a series of games and observed the following:

• Winners outscored losers by 75 points
• The winner drew 4.3 more tiles than the loser
• The winner went first more often
• The winner played more of the “power tiles” (i.e., the 11 tiles that are worth 4 points or more)
• The winner outbingoed the loser 2:1, accounting for ~90% of the differential in points
• 2–4 letter words comprise 5% of the dictionary, yet account for 75% of the words formed, and ~50% of the score
• Bingos formed 6% of the words played, but accounted for ~28% of the score
• For every bingo played, 12.5 short words were played

Luck is considered 15–30% of the game. “You can’t control the tiles” (Joe Edley).

One of the expert players at my club mentioned that you need to try and average about 30 points per turn to give yourself a chance to win. He figured that there are somewhere between 13–15 turns per game (at the higher levels, I notice that players take fewer turns than at the “lower” levels), allowing you to score at least 400 points.

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When I examine my own play at the most recent Oshawa tournament (view recap), here are the statistics:

• Over the 12 games I played, the average scores for me and my opponent were 373.08 and 348.67 points per game (about +24.42 points per game difference). I averaged over one bingo a game (1.17) compared with 0.42 bingos per game by my opponent;
• In my 8 wins, I scored 393.75 points per game compared to 332.88 for my opponents (+60.88 points/game differential). I averaged 1.38 bingos compared with 0.38 for my opponents. Basically, when I won, I made one more bingo each game than my opponents.
• In my 4 losses, I averaged 331.75 points/game compared with 380.25 for my opponents (a difference of -48.50 points/game). In these losses, I only averaged 0.75 bingos/game compared with 0.50 for my opponents (a difference of only +0.25 bingos/game)
• In my wins, I scored 62 points more per game than during my losses (393.75 vs. 331.75), while my opponents scored 47.38 points per game fewer (332.88 vs. 380.25) compared to when I lost.  Basically, when I lost, I played worse and my opponents played much better compared to my wins.
• During my wins, I averaged 25.0 points per turn, compared with 21.75 points per turn in my losses.

I was too lazy to analyze the averages for the power tiles, but I can remember that in two of my losses, I had junk tiles. Based on the statistics, I think that some of the statistics reported in Word Freak, seem to hold true. In my wins, I did outbingo my opponents and scored about 61 points more (basically a low-scoring bingo). Unfortunately, I only scored about 25 points per turn for my wins and a measly 21.75 points per turn in my losses.

This analysis seems to provide me further evidence that I need to improve my knowledge of <7 letter words. I think that is the area where I can increase my score significantly. I think if I raise my overall scoring ability, I will have greater chances of winning on a consistent basis.

I think I’m going to start doing some statistical analysis of my games to see if any trends develop. If there are any other statistics that I should be examining, I’d love to learn what they are. I wonder if point differential/spread has any role.